KATY/FULSHEAR, Texas (Covering Katy News) – A recent analysis from the Fort Bend Central Appraisal District (FBCAD) revealed that nearly 60% of homeowners in the county saw their home's taxable value decline in 2025. While that report was based on property appraisals, local MLS sales data from Katy and Fulshear shows many of the same underlying trends — including growing inventory, longer time on market, and price adjustments.
Housing Market Shows Signs of Realignment
Though the two datasets serve different purposes, they both point to a realignment in the housing market after years of rapid growth.
Appraisals vs. Market Sales: Different Tools, Similar Signals
FBCAD appraisals are mass-assessed annually and used to determine property taxes. They're based on historical data and regional modeling rather than individual home transactions. In contrast, MLS data reflects what homes are actually selling for each month.
Market Cooling Affects Mid- and Lower-Priced Homes
While these are two separate lenses, both suggest that the market is cooling — particularly for mid- and lower-priced homes. Appraisal data indicates widespread taxable value declines, and MLS data in Katy and Fulshear shows sale prices have leveled off or dipped slightly year-over-year. Key Market Indicators from MLS Data (Katy/Fulshear Region)
- Average Sale Price (June 2025): $449,661 • Down 4.3% from $469,784 in June 2024
- Median Sale Price (June 2025): $364,740 • Down 9.0% from $401,000 in June 2024
- Closed Sales (Jan–Jun 2025): 3,954 • Up 8.6% from 3,661 in 2024
- Active Listings (June 2025): 2,830 • Up 40% year-over-year
- Cumulative Days on Market (CDOM): 59 • Up from 49 in June 2024
Jared Greenberg
Jared Greenberg is a Katy based Realtor who provides monthly expert analysis of the Katy-Fulshear Real Estate market for Covering Katy News.
Buyers Gain More Leverage in Negotiations
These figures support the idea that while demand remains healthy, buyers now have more leverage, and sellers are having to price more competitively.
Price Movement Varies by ZIP Code
The Katy/Fulshear market is made up of several distinct submarkets, and June data shows a mixed performance:
- 77449 (east Katy/Cypress area) • Average price rose slightly, from $289,451 to $291,004 • Remains one of the region's more affordable ZIP codes
- 77441 (Fulshear) • Average price increased from $497,397 to $537,201 • Strong demand, especially for new construction
- 77494 (south Katy) • Average price declined from $635,594 to $598,263 • Still remains the highest-priced ZIP code in the region
- 77450 and 77493 • Both saw moderate declines in average and median pricing • Combined with rising inventory, these areas are trending toward a buyer's market
Aligning with the Countywide Shift
While we don't have FBCAD's appraisal data broken out by ZIP code, the overall trends in Katy and Fulshear align with what the countywide report describes:
- Prices are stabilizing or declining slightly
- Inventory is rising
- Lower- and mid-priced segments are facing more pricing pressure
- The pace of sales is slowing, even as the number of closings increases
Sales Activity Remains Strong Despite Cooling Prices
The one area where MLS data differs slightly is in sales activity, which is up in Katy and Fulshear — suggesting that while pricing power has cooled, buyer demand remains active, especially in high-growth areas like Fulshear.
Bottom Line
Market Normalizing After Years of Rapid Growth
While appraisal values and market prices are calculated differently, both datasets point to the same conclusion: the housing market is normalizing after years of rapid growth.
In Katy and Fulshear, this shows up as a mix of slight price corrections, longer days on market, and increased choices for buyers. The result is a more balanced market — one where sellers must be strategic, and buyers have more room to negotiate.
The author of this article, Jared Greenberg, is a Realtor with Keller Williams Premier Realty in Katy and can be reached at jaredgreenberg@kw.com or through his website at jghomegroup.com.